Démographie japonaise

Paradoxes et perspectives

Japanese demography: paradoxes and perspectives

Médecine/Sciences, 9, rue Basse, 54330 Clérey-sur-Brénon, France

^* simone.gilgenkrantz@gmail.com

Résumé

Le Japon est un des pays les plus peuplés du monde avec une densité de 337 habitants par km2. Sa population est de 127 417 244 habitants pour une superficie de 377 835 km². Pourtant, l’Institut national de recherche sur la population et la sécurité sociale est préoccupé : depuis 1950, la natalité ne cesse de baisser et certaines projections alarmistes prédisent la disparition complète de la population japonaise pour l’an 3000.

Abstract

Japan is one of the most densely-populated countries with a population estimated at 127.4 millions and an average density of 337 persons per square kilometer. But the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research is concerned: since 1950, the total fertility rate is declining and some pessimistic projections predict the japanese population extinction to 3000. During 2008, several reports, based on the major results of 2005 census, analyse population process components and establish projections based on alternative assumptions, looking for solutions limiting the population dependency ratio. On the site of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, the population pyramids are shown from 1930 to 2055. Recently, the French National Institute for demographic studies gave a comprehensive report on the Japanese demographic status, explaining the possible consequences for the country’s demographic future.